SPOTLIGHT: THE PICKS

The Oscars have come! Here are my thoughts on what will win, should win, and should have been a contender.

PICTURE

Will win- I think the academy's pick'll be The Aviator. It's been another disappointing year for Oscar picks, since in my opinion only two in this category (The Aviator and Sideways) are truly worthy of acknowledgment. I actually do believe, contrary to perception, that Sideways has a chance at the big trophy. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Should win- Alexander Payne has made four original and quirky movies (Citizen Ruth, Election, About Schmidt), and with Sideways, he's at the height of his creative powers. This one should take home the gold.

Should have been- Since David O. Russell's metaphysical screwball comedy I [Heart] Huckabees was among the most polarizing films of the year, there was no realistic chance for its nomination. But I was among its avid admirers.

ACTOR-

Will win- Barring a natural disaster of the highest order, Jamie Foxx is on track to deliver another heart-warming acceptance speech for his role as Ray. It seems all you have to do these days to win an Oscar is play a real person.

Should win- Well, Don Cheadle also played a real--- though less glamorous--- person, and he's taken up the genocide in Sudan as his Hollywood-Leftist cause. The performance was simply more interesting, and I'd slightly prefer recognition for him.

Should have been- The omission of Paul Giamatti in this category is certainly the stupidest Oscar snub in many years. It's a lackluster category already this year, and the academy proves once again that passing over quality is their strongest point.

ACTRESS-

Will win- It's Annette Bening's turn, since she lost for American Beauty. I didn't see Being Julia, and don't really care, so long as ***SPOLIER ALERT*** Hilary Swank's four thousand "I-play-a-woman-on-a-respirator-and-therefore-should-win-the-Oscar" moments in Million Dollar Baby don't go rewarded.

Should win- Catalina Sandino Moreno. Would help free us of the Annette vs. Hilary sequel.

Should have been- Laura Dern's work in We Don't Live Here Anymore is by far the best of the year.

SUPPORTING ACTOR-

Will win- Morgan Freeman's acting and narration are too powerful to pass up, particularly in light of the dreadful screenplay handed to him. He also has decades of memorable film performances that should not go unrewarded.

Should win- Alan Alda emerges from Extraville to steal a few scenes from The Aviator, but on the red carpet Alda himself said, "Morgan's got this one."

Should have been- Tom Wilkinson squeezes more humanity into his role as the Love Doctor in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind than may have seemed possible. And William Hurt was born to play the wise, diplomatic tribe leader in The Village, a film belonging to a genre that will never see the inside of Hollywood's Shrine Auditorium.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS-

Will win- Laura Linney's probably got this one, but it's a competitive category. Cate Blanchette gave another "real person" performance, so that may just be enough.

Should win- Laura Linney. Incandescent.

Should have been- Meryl Streep brings comedic brilliance to the hyper-nervous, dotty Aunt in Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events.

DIRECTOR-

Will win- Martin Scorsese. Please. Please. Please. Please.

Should win- Martin Scorsese. *Sigh.* Clint Eastwood, seriously? Seriously?

Should have been- Wes Anderson is one of the greatest young filmmakers we have. His Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou is the work of a master.